Exit polls and voter turnout
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Exit Polls and Voter Turnout
We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are a¤ected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We nd that the introduction of an exit poll inuences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the sign of the e¤ect is generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls inuence the incentiv...
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I use variation across markets in the timing of televisions introduction to identify its impact on voter turnout. The estimated e¤ect is signi cantly negative, accounting for between a quarter and a half of the total decline in turnout since the 1950s. It is robust to a range of controls and alternative speci cations, and interacts intuitively with county characteristics. I argue that substitu...
متن کاملEmployment, Wages and Voter Turnout
We argue that, since activities providing political information are complementary with leisure, increased labor market activity should lower voter turnout, doing so least in elections with ubiquitous information. Using county-level data, we find that increased wages and employment: reduce gubernatorial turnout; do not affect Presidential turnout; and raise the share of persons casting a Preside...
متن کاملExit Polls, Turnout, and Bandwagon Voting: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by abo...
متن کاملVoter Turnout and Preferences Aggregation∗
This paper studies how voter turnout affects the extent to which voter preferences are aggregated in elections. Given that voting is costly, election outcomes disproportionately aggregate the preferences of voters with low voting cost. We show that the correlation structure among preferences, costs, and perception of voting effi cacy can be identified, and explore how the correlation affects pr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Theoretical Politics
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0951-6298,1460-3667
DOI: 10.1177/0951629813493210